Truckload transportation has always been sensitive to disruption, and winter weather has historically played a predictable role in creating short-term volatility. However, recent market data indicates that this year’s winter-driven fluctuations are occurring within a fundamentally different operating environment—one defined by tighter capacity, elevated tender rejections, and heightened spot market sensitivity.
The National Truckload Index (NTI) has climbed to $2.71 per mile, inclusive of fuel, reflecting notable turbulence in January spot rates. While similar seasonal volatility has appeared in past years, the intensity and persistence of current price movements suggest that weather-related disruptions are being amplified by deeper structural pressures in the truckload market.
A comparative view of NTI data across 2023, 2024, and 2025 highlights how January’s volatility stands apart from historical seasonal trends. In previous winters, snowstorms and extreme cold typically caused brief rate spikes by delaying shipments and temporarily sidelining capacity. This year, those same disruptions are interacting with an already strained capacity environment—resulting in sharper and more sustained price reactions.
Elevated Tender Rejections Reshape Market Dynamics
A key differentiator in the current market is the unusually high level of tender rejections, which have now exceeded 13%, surpassing even the typical holiday peak. Industry benchmarks generally view rejection rates in the 7–8% range as inflationary for spot rates, while enterprise shippers typically target tender compliance levels above 95%. A rejection rate north of 13% signals significant friction—either due to insufficient capacity, misaligned contract pricing, or both—causing carriers to fall out of routing guides and forcing shippers into the spot market.
This shift is clearly reflected when tender rejection data is overlaid seasonally alongside NTI pricing. Unlike prior years, where winter disruptions coincided with declining post-holiday rates, current rejection levels are reinforcing upward pressure on spot prices. The result is a market where even routine winter storms can trigger outsized rate responses as shippers compete for limited available capacity.
Weather Disruptions in a Tight Capacity Environment
Winter weather disrupts freight flows by delaying pickups and deliveries, reducing transit speeds, and pulling trucks off the road for safety reasons. These factors compress effective capacity and often push additional demand into the spot market. In looser markets, the system can typically absorb these shocks with only modest, short-lived rate increases.
In today’s environment, however, elevated rejection rates indicate that capacity is already constrained. As a result, weather events that might once have caused minor ripples now generate significant volatility. Localized disruptions—such as blizzards or ice storms—can quickly escalate into broader market impacts as equipment is delayed, rerouted, or removed from service, tightening supply nationwide.
Structural Pressures Intensify Volatility
The current market’s sensitivity is further shaped by broader industry challenges, including driver availability constraints, regulatory pressures, and shifting economic conditions. While recent winters showed expected post-holiday easing in rates, the pattern has become increasingly uneven, with weather-driven spikes emerging more frequently and lasting longer.
In a tight market, severe weather does more than interrupt operations—it magnifies existing imbalances. Carriers gain pricing leverage on available loads, while shippers face higher costs to maintain service levels. Brokers are left navigating rapid price swings, relying heavily on real-time data to manage risk and secure capacity.
Strategic Implications for Freight Stakeholders
For shippers, the current environment underscores the importance of resilient capacity strategies, including diversified carrier networks, flexible routing guides, and contingency planning for weather-related disruptions. Carriers benefit from increased leverage but must balance opportunity with operational risk during periods of extreme volatility. Brokers play a critical role in connecting supply and demand, using high-frequency market data to anticipate shifts and guide pricing decisions.
Looking Ahead
As winter conditions persist, the truckload market’s response will offer further insight into whether elevated rejection rates are a temporary anomaly or a signal of longer-term structural tightness. If rejection levels remain elevated, even moderate weather events could continue to support spot rate volatility and influence upcoming contract negotiations.
The takeaway is clear: weather alone no longer explains truckload volatility. Its interaction with market fundamentals—particularly capacity constraints—is what defines today’s outcomes. In a margin-sensitive industry where timing and utilization are critical, understanding this relationship is essential for navigating the road ahead.
