The rapid escalation of hostilities involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S. is creating immediate, severe volatility for global supply chains. Key logistics corridors—specifically those running through the Middle East—are experiencing significant flight suspensions, port closures, and rerouting, all of which are driving up costs and transit times.
Air Freight: Capacity Contraction and Looming Rate Spikes
The Middle East, a critical transit hub connecting Asia and Europe, is effectively experiencing a logistics blackout. Data from consultancy Rotate indicates that global air cargo capacity has already dropped by 18% compared to last week as carriers pull services and avoid affected airspace.
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Hub Disruption: Operations at major transit hubs—including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha—are either halted or severely restricted.
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The “Long-Haul” Effect: Aircraft are being forced to take longer, circuitous routes to bypass the conflict zone. This increases fuel consumption, necessitates potential refueling stops, and reduces the total payload capacity per flight.
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Carrier Status: * Suspended/Halted: Qatar Airways, Emirates Skycargo, Etihad, Cathay Group, and Air India have all suspended or severely limited regional services.
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Major Integrators: FedEx has suspended pick-up and delivery services across multiple countries in the region, including the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. UPS is currently maintaining operations but operating under strict, fluid contingency plans.
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Passenger/Hybrid Impact: Major carriers like United and SWISS have canceled flights to Tel Aviv and Dubai, further reducing belly-cargo capacity.
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Outlook: While current rates have remained relatively stable, industry analysts (including TAC Index) expect a significant upward trend, particularly on the Asia-Europe lane, as capacity tightens and airlines prioritize network recovery.
Ocean Freight: Emergency Surcharges and Route Diversions
The maritime sector is facing a “double-squeeze.” Carriers are navigating both the immediate conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and a renewed threat of Houthi-led disruption in the Red Sea.
Emergency War Risk Surcharges
Carriers are responding to the heightened risk with immediate financial adjustments:
| Carrier | Surcharge Type | Impact |
| CMA CGM | Emergency Surcharge | $4,000 per FEU |
| Hapag-Lloyd | War Risk Surcharge | $1,500 per TEU ($3,500 for reefer/special) |
Operational Shifts
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Route Diversions: Major lines—including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA CGM—are actively diverting vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz.
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The Cape of Good Hope: With the threat of renewed strikes, shipping lines that had previously attempted to restart Red Sea transits are pivoting back to the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, abandoning the Suez Canal shortcut for the foreseeable future.
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Port Closures: DP World has suspended operations at the port of Jebel Ali in Dubai following regional aerial interceptions.
Strategic Takeaways for Shippers
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Expect Delays: Significant transit delays are inevitable for both in-transit shipments and new bookings.
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Perishable Risks: Some carriers have already moved to restrict perishable cargo carriage as a precautionary measure.
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Slack in Supply: The one mitigating factor is the current seasonal lull in Chinese exports following the Lunar New Year. This “slack” in aircraft availability may temper the immediate rate explosion for a few weeks, but pressure will mount quickly as factory output normalizes.
